London-based economic and political analyst, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is tipping the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) to win the next general elections in 2024.
The only condition, however, to make the victory possible, according to the EIU, is for the party to pave the way for a new presidential candidate other than former President, John Dramani Mahama.
It said the chances of the NDC will be higher if Mr. Mahama, who led the party to two election losses in 2016 and 2020, is replaced to re-energise the party and boost its prospects.
These were captured in the EIU’s five-year forecast for Ghana, published on April 13, 2022.
“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under constitutionally mandated term limits, the incumbent president, Mr. Akufo-Addo, cannot run for a third term. The former president, John Mahama, is reportedly considering running again, but we expect the opposition NDC to try to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate”, the EIU said.
Citing reasons for its prediction, the Unit suggested the economic crunch, poor infrastructure and deep-rooted corruption and high employment levels superintended over by the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will play a key role to inform the voter’s choice giving the NDC an upper hand in the polls.
“Our baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change. The NDC therefore stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections”, parts of the EIU report mentioned.
Breaking the eight
The governing New Patriotic Party has already said it intends ending the cycle of political power changing hands every eight years.
It came on the back of an EIU report released in March 2021 predicting a victory for the NDC in the 2024 polls.
Information Minister, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, said the governing NPP has decided to sustain the support of Ghanaians in 2024 through viable economic policies.
“We are very much aware of this tendency [as observed in the EIU report], but we believe that this whole thing where every 8 years even when the country is making progress, power changes hands, it is something that can actually set us back. That is why this administration intends to work very hard to retain the confidence of the people by the time our second term mandate is done. So that we can break the 8 years cycle.”
“So it will ordinarily be a risk, but it is a phenomenon that we are akin to break and this expectation that every 8 years power changes hands, which is what is informing what they have put out there, is one that we intend to break,” the Minister added.
The Minister emphasised that the NPP government seeks to re-engineer a recovery of the economy through the creation of jobs and other viable policies.
The NPP will have a new flagbearer for the first time in four elections as President Akufo-Addo prepares to end his final term as President.